Recent News from the Melbourne Institute
May 2016
April 2016
- Leading Index points to material drag on growth
- Inflationary expectations rose slightly in April
- Homeless Australians eat only two meals a day (based on Working Paper 15/16)
- Surprise fall in Consumer Sentiment
- The Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge remained unchanged in March
March 2016
- Leading Index points to growth dropping back below trend
- Volatility smashes near-term shareholder confidence which is down more than 25% since last year
- Inflationary expectations fell in March
- SMEs disappointed with current business conditions, but cautiously optimistic about the future
- Wage gap linked to high school subject choices (based on Working Paper 10/16)
- Consumer Sentiment shows modest fall
February 2016
- The Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge fell by 0.2 per cent in February
- Leading Index continues to weaken
- Inflationary expectations remain unchanged in February
- Consumer Sentiment bounces back
- The TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.4 per cent in January
January 2016
- International developments weigh on the Leading Index
- Inflationary Expectations fell in January
- Consumer Sentiment drops on international and financial market concerns
- The TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.2 per cent in December
December 2015
- Leading Index growth rate slows
- Inflationary expectations rose in December
- Consumer Sentiment consolidates
- Confidence slide accelerates and investors expect more volatility
November 2015
- The TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1 per cent in November
- Leading Index improves but stays below trend
- Inflationary expectations remain unchanged in November
- Political change further boosts consumer sentiment; Christmas spending outlook at a seven year high
- Small Business Index unwinds post budget gains
- The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge remained unchanged in October
October 2015
- New study reveals violence a trigger for women’s and men’s housing problems (based on Working Paper 20/15)
- Leading Index growth rate remains below trend
- Inflationary expectations rose in October
- Consumer Sentiment rises strongly; jobs confidence rises sharply
- The TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3 per cent in September
September 2015
- Leading Index slows well below trend
- Inflationary expectations fell in September
- Consumer Sentiment hit by global concerns
- The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1 per cent in August
August 2015
- Westpac Small Business Index indicates restored confidence for the small business sector
- Shareholder confidence slide continues
- Leading Index growth drops below trend
- Inflationary expectations rose again in August
- The TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.2 per cent in July
- Consumer Sentiment Surges Back
July 2015
- Leading Index Losing Momentum
- Inflationary expectations rose in July
- Major cities create unhappy Australians: A snapshot of our nation revealed
- Consumer Sentiment Index falls further
- Aussie households are running a tight ship ‐ reducing debt and boosting the piggy bank
- The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.1 per cent in June
June 2015
- Leading Index shows momentum stalling
- Inflationary expectations fell in June
- The Westpac–MI Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 6.9% in June
- The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3 per cent in May
May 2015
- Leading Index lifts back above trend
- Almost half of all people released from the prison system become homeless (based on Journeys Home Research Report No. 6)
- Shareholder confidence worsens
- Small business confidence falls to all time low
- Inflationary expectations rose again in May
- The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 6.4% in May
- TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3 per cent in April
April 2015
- Growth in Leading Index back in negative territory
- Inflationary expectations rose in April
- Consumer Sentiment drops ahead of the Commonwealth Budget
- Record low interest rates are taking effect: Financial conditions improving for Australian households
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.4 per cent in March
March 2015
- Lesbians earn more than heterosexual women while gay men lag in wages (based on Working Paper 8/15)
- Leading Index lifts above trend for first time in over a year
- Inflationary expectations fell in March
- Consumer Sentiment consolidates
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge was flat in February
February 2015
- Stress cost of a new baby = $85,000 (based on Working Paper 1/15)
- Shareholder confidence rebounds. Equity markets to benefit from interest rate cut
- Leading Index growth rate below trend for twelfth consecutive month
- Westpac - Melbourne Institute Small Business Index indicates optimistic outlook for small business sector
- Inflationary expectations rose in February
- Consumer Sentiment soars on rate cut, petrol and sharemarket
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1 per cent in January
January 2015
- Leading Index slips, growth momentum remains well below trend
- Inflationary expectations fell in January
- Record improvements for Australian homeowners
- Modest lift in Consumer Sentiment
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge remained flat in December
December 2014
- Leading Index continues to signal below trend growth
- Inflationary expectations fell in December
- Consumer Sentiment plunges
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1 per cent in November
November 2014
- Anxiety hits women most about job loss in the family (based on Working Paper 23/14)
- Shareholder confidence takes a 13.3% hit as Index predicts continued volatility pressure
- Westpac – Melbourne Institute Small Business Index reveals uplift in small business confidence
- Leading Index growth rate improves
- Inflationary expectations rose in November
- Modest improvement in Consumer Sentiment but prospects for Christmas season are disappointing
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.2 per cent in October
October 2014
- NAPLAN scores predict University entry (based on Working Paper 22/14)
- Debts down, savings up: Aussies prepare for big ticket purchases
- Leading Index points to continued below trend performance
- Migrant employment on the rise (based on Working Paper 21/14)
- Inflationary expectations fell slightly in October
- Little change in Consumer Sentiment despite volatile markets
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1 per cent in September
September 2014
- Leading Index growth rate stays below trend
- Inflationary expectations rose in September
- Consumer Sentiment falls significantly
- Small business confidence declines but remains in positive territory
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge was flat in August
August 2014
- Threats to welfare payments only short term fix to Indigenous school attendance (based on Working Paper 19/14)
- Investor confidence short-lived as market volatility and economy fears upset Index
- Growth in the Leading Index stays below trend
- Inflationary expectations fell considerably in August
- Consumer Sentiment back near pre-Budget Levels
- The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.2 per cent in July
July 2014
- Australians continue to run a tight ship to save money and reduce debt
- Growth in Leading Index continues to slow
- Inflationary expectations fell in July
- Consumer sentiment remains soft
June 2014
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge remained flat in June
- Leading Index signals slowdown ahead
- HILDA reveals the changing face of Australia (based on the 9th HILDA Statistical Report)
- Inflationary expectations fell in June
- Consumer sentiment stabilises after sharp fall post budget
- Westpac - Melbourne Institute Small Business Index indicates sustained positivity and performance
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% in May
May 2014
- Leading Index points to sharp slowdown
- Investor confidence rebounds as performance expectations grow and budget concerns are ignored
- Inflationary expectations rose in May
- Consumer sentiment plummets – adverse response to budget
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.4% in April
April 2014
- More Australians start to spend their savings
- Growth in Leading Index remains below trend
- Inflationary expectations rose in April
- Consumer sentiment stabilises
March 2014
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.2% in March
- It's official: mid-life crises do exist
- Leading Index points to loss of momentum
- Inflationary expectations fell in March
- Consumer sentiment sinks further, back below 100
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.2% in February
February 2014
- Small Business Optimistic Despite Challenging Economic Outlook
- Confidence evaporating on investor fears of low returns and increased market volatility
- Growth rate in Leading Index drops
- Inflationary expectations remain unchanged in February
- Consumer sentiment falls further
- Healthy lifestyles linked to extra schooling (based on Working Paper 1/14)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1% in January
January 2014
- Leading Index growth slows but still above trend
- Inflationary expectations rose slightly in January
- Consumer sentiment softens a little
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.7% in December
- Biggest improvement in financial conditions for Australians in two decades
December 2013
- Growth rate in Leading Index slows but still above trend
- Inflationary expectations rose slightly in December
- Consumer Sentiment tumbles
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.2% in November
November 2013
- Investor confidence slides further as market fears increase
- New Leading Index points to an uplift in growth
- Westpac and the Melbourne Institute launch redesigned Leading Index
- Inflationary expectations remain moderate
- Housing confidence boosts Consumer Sentiment
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1% in October
October 2013
- Leading Index shows growth momentum flagging
- Inflationary expectations rose in October
- Consumer Sentiment shows modest retreat
- Record low interest rates take effect: Financial conditions improve for homeowners, worsen for Gen Y
September 2013
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.2% in September
- Leading Index growth rate pushes further above trend
- Inflationary expectations fell again in September
- Election boosts Consumer Sentiment
- Budget deficits essential, but Australia’s economic policies confused (based on Policy Brief 5/13)
- Australia on the cusp of a disability benefit blowout? (based on the September issue of the Australian Economic Review)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1% in August
August 2013
- Looking for the silver bullet in public policy (based on Policy Brief 4/13)
- Investor confidence recovering Unfazed by federal election
- Growth rate in the Leading Index slows down
- Inflationary expectations fell in August
- Consumer Sentiment responds well to rate cut
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.5% in July
July 2013
- Private health insurance rebate "expensive and fiscally unsustainable" (based on Policy Brief 3/13)
- Leading Index remains strong
- Households hold a mirror to the economy and sit steady for the quarter
- Inflationary expectations rose in July
- Consumer Sentiment steady
- TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge was unchanged in June
June 2013
- Leading Index rises
- Inflationary expectations was unchanged in June
- Consumer Sentiment improves
- 2013 HILDA report sounds the alarm on child poverty (based on the 8th HILDA Statistical Report)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.2% in May
May 2013
- Leading Index holds slips but still points to above trend growth
- Investor confidence evaporates in wake of Federal budget
- Inflationary expectations rose slightly
- Consumer Sentiment falls sharply in the wake of the Budget
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.3% in April
April 2013
- Australian migrant kids "more trusting" (based on Working Paper 2/13)
- Five Fatal Flaws that could undermine the Gonski Report (based on Policy Brief 2/13)
- Leading Index continues to pick up
- Inflationary expectations fell slightly
- Consumer Sentiment stumbles
- Savvy savers in a home of their own
March 2013
- Workplace discrimination cuts deep across Australia (based on Working Paper 9/13)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge: Prices rise 0.2% in March
- Gen Y home leavers going without food to survive (based on Working Paper 10/13)
- Leading Index points to marginally above trend growth
- Both inflationary expectations and wage expectations rose in March
- Consumer Sentiment registers another solid gain
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge: Prices flat in February
February 2013
- Investors Ready to Push Share Prices Higher Still
- Leading Index points to moderately above trend growth
- Inflationary expectations rose again in February
- Consumer Sentiment lifts
- Study provides deeper insight into homelessness (based on Journeys Home Research Report 2)
- Aussies splurged stimulus cheques on the pokies, but squirreled away carbon tax compo (based on Working Paper 1/13)
- Poor evaluations undermining public policy initiatives (based on Policy Brief 01/13)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% in January
January 2013
- Durability Shines Through For Majority of Australian Households In 2012, Despite Overall Conditions Decline
- Leading Index points to above trend growth
- Inflationary expectations rose slightly in January
- Consumer Sentiment fails to respond to more good news
- TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.4% in December
December 2012
- Leading Index growth rate turns down
- Inflationary Expectations fell further while pay expectations remained modest
- Consumer Sentiment disappoints
- GP mums $100,000 p.a. worse off than men (based on Working Paper 24/12)
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TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge fell by 0.1% in November
November 2012
- Leading Index growth rate picks up steam
- Investor Confidence in Sharemarket Outlook Continues
- Inflationary Expectations fell in November
- Strong lift in Consumer Sentiment
-
TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1% in October
October 2012
- Latest Asia-Australia Index confirms Chinese investment on Australia is slowing down (based on PwC-Melbourne Institute Asialink Index)
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Poorer parents not encouraging high school completion: study (based on Working Paper 16/12)
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TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.2 per cent in September
September 2012
- Leading Index remains below trend
- Economists prove a healthy outlook leads to a healthy lifestyle (based on Working Paper 15/12)
- Inflationary Expectations unchanged, but pay expectations plummeted
- Consumer Sentiment rises slightly but remains weak
- Prolonging maternity leave doesn't damage future earning potential (based on Working Paper 19/12)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge: Prices rose 0.6% in August
August 2012
- Study advocates tough measures for high school dropouts (based on Working Paper 14/12)
- Leading Index improves but remains below trend (PDF 43KB)
- Investors Prepare for New Wave of Share Buying as Confidence Grows (PDF 115KB)
- Decrease in Inflationary Expectations in August (PDF 99KB)
- Consumer Sentiment fails to get any traction (PDF 46KB)
- World-first study into homelessness released (based on Journeys Home Research Report 1)
- Doctors want extra cash to work in the bush (based on Working Paper 13/12)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge: Prices rise a mere 0.2% in July and 1.5%/yr despite carbon tax (PDF 26KB)
July 2012
- Growth rate of the Leading Index is recovering slowly (PDF 43KB)
- Increase in Inflationary Expectations in July (PDF 112KB)
- Consumer sentiment lifts (PDF 44KB)
- Global financial crisis insights in latest HILDA Survey report (based on the 7th HILDA Statistical Report)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge decreased by 0.2 per cent in June (PDF 22KB)
June 2012
- Leading Index points to sharp loss of momentum (PDF 44KB)
- Consumer sentiment posts small gain (PDF 44KB)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge remained flat in May (PDF 21KB)
May 2012
- Melbourne Institute Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends (95KB)
- Growth in Leading Index still below trend (PDF 43KB)
- Investors Turn Gloomy in Wake of Federal Budget and Latest Shares Slump (PDF 635KB)
- Inflation expectations moderate but not by much (PDF 99KB)
- Consumer sentiment surprises with a flat result (PDF 46KB)
- U21 Rankings of National Higher Education Systems 2012
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.3 per cent in April (PDF 19KB)
April 2012
- Young-adults who get parental support do better at study and work (based on Working Paper 4/2012)
- Leading Index growth remains lacklustre (PDF 42KB)
- Consumer Inflationary Expectations: A policy dilemma on the horizon? (PDF 95KB)
- Consumer sentiment slips on financial concerns (PDF 50KB)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.5 per cent in March (PDF 20KB)
March 2012
- Leading Index points to lacklustre growth (PDF 44KB)
- Consumer Inflationary Expectations: Steady as it goes (PDF 94KB)
- Consumer sentiment tumbles (PDF 46KB)
- Unexpected victims: German parent's unemployment reduces their son's life satisfaction (based on Working Paper 2/2012)
- Cost of regulations and subsidies reduce effectiveness of carbon pricing (based on March issue of Australian Economic Review)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.1 per cent in February (PDF 21KB)
February 2012
- Leading Index remains subdued (PDF 43KB)
- Investors Provide Ongoing Support for Rally in Share Prices (PDF 134KB)
- Consumer Inflationary Expectations back to middle of target band (PDF 95KB)
- Consumer sentiment bounces back (PDF 46KB)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.2 per cent in January (PDF 19KB)
January 2012
- Leading Index slowing down (PDF 43KB)
- Consumer Inflationary Expectations rose in January (PDF 95KB)
- Modest recovery in consumer sentiment (PDF 43KB)
- Significant cost savings by abolishing private health insurance rebates (PDF 59KB) (based on Working Paper 26/11)
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.5 per cent in December (PDF 21KB)