The dynamics of income support receipt among ‘new' income support customers

Motivation

Previous research on the longer-term dynamics of income receipt in Australia has cast light on which people commencing an income support spell in a particular time window exhibit various patterns of income support receipt (eg short one-off spells, long continuous spells, transfers from payment to payment or ‘churning' on and off income support). This analysis can help to inform various targeting strategies for labour market interventions by predicting individual future income support experiences.

However, because so many people commencing an income support spell are ‘repeat' recipients predictive models derived from total commencements may have limited application to individuals who are entering income support for the first time or after a long spell off income support.

For the purpose of the research, recipients are treated as new if they have not received any other income support payment within the previous three and a half years. The data used for this project is longitudinal administrative data.

Objectives

The purpose of this project is to examine the longer-term patterns of income support receipt among ‘new' income support recipients and how these differ for various sub-groups and by the payment type that people first receive.

Methodology

We employ standard descriptive statistics to describe income support receipt patterns, empirical hazards to describe observed durations of the first income support spell and the first off income support spell, as well as a competing risk analysis distinguishing true exits and transfers.

Current State of Project

Draft report completed December 2005.

The Melbourne Institute contact for this project is Dr Hielke Buddelmeyer.